For those of you who are very “online,” you have probably heard that there is talk of a potential cage match between Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg and Tesla’s Elon Musk. Even if you are not into combat sports, I bet most of you would tune in to see a battle between these two even if you hope both somehow lose. As Jalopnik’s resident martial arts dork, I am going to make my prediction for who would come out with their hand raised.
So how did we even get to the point where we have a nerd fight between two of Silicon Valley’s richest CEOs? For the most part, this all started, with reports of Zuckerberg competing in some local Brazilian JiuJitsu tournaments and even winning a few medals. There were some reports that Zuck was choked out in another tournament but experienced observers seem to think that he just tapped out and lost that match.
I will say that Zuck gets a lot of criticism for a lot of things, and rightly so. But choosing to train and compete in BJJ at almost 40 years old gets props from me. I studied various martial arts as a kid then stepped away from training around 25. I started BJJ two years ago when I was 40 and getting regularly smashed on the mat by people that are younger, stronger, and/or better is not what most would call an enjoyable experience… but for some odd reason I keep coming back to class.
All this hype around Zuck’s martial arts competitions eventually made its way to Elon, who has to Tweet about everything, and said he’s “up for a cage fight if he [Zuckerberg] is.’ Zuck, on his Instagram, responded with “Send me location.” And because the internet is undefeated this potential became the tech/celebrity news we are all talking about. Because let’s be honest here, this is far more interesting than whatever VR silliness Meta is working on or the incessant conversation about how Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” is anything but.
UFC President Dana White has gone on record to say that the two are “Dead serious” about this matchup and I would assume that the UFC would want a piece of the action if it actually comes to fruition.
If it does happen, who should you place your wagers on? Let’s look at a “tale of the tape” as they say.
Elon Musk is 51 years old, and most sources say he is about six feet tall, with a weight reported between 180-200 pounds. That is a substantial size advantage over Mark Zuckerberg who is 38 years old, about 5-foot-7, and around 155 pounds. In Zuck’s recent BJJ matches, he competed at the 149-pound weight limit. We could be looking at a weight differential of up to 50 pounds, and anyone who tells you that “size doesn’t matter” is either lying or has never been in a real physical engagement with someone that had outweighed them.
Of course, if a fight were to actually happen it’s very unlikely that any athletic commission would sanction a matchup with that large of a weight discrepancy. There is a reason professional fighters have weight classes. This battle would likely fall into some kind of “catchweight” and perhaps Zuck bulks up to 165 and Elon slims down to 180. That 15-pound difference still favors Musk.
Zuck, on the other hand, brings more to the table to neutralize that size advantage. For starters, he is younger, and unless a 52-year-old man is a dedicated athlete, they are going to have a hard time in any physical contest with someone who is 38.
The biggest, and most obvious factor here is training. Mark Zuckerberg has recently gotten hooked on martial arts training. He has been doing Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu for about a year and there is some footage of him doing some mixed martial arts training as well. He did a virtual spar with UFC champ Alex Volkanovski and has shared the mat with ONE FC grappling champ, and BJJ phenom Mikey Muscemeci.
Zuck also did some fencing in college, and while this matchup won’t involve swords, the athleticism, timing, and footwork of fencing does have some carry-over.
However, let’s not count Musk out just yet. In an interview with Joe Rogan:
Musk described himself as a “bookish” kid, the billionaire said he studied karate, judo, and Brazilian jiu jitsu his youth.
The billionaire also wrestles. Last year, Musk said on Twitter that he managed to “throw the world champion sumo wrestler” at a party. However, the experience caused him to slip a disc in his neck.
Unlike Zuckerberg, Musk doesn’t seem to have kept up with his training but having that base will certainly prove helpful if both parties agree on a training camp to prepare for this matchup.
Overall, Zuckerberg has a skillset advantage while Elon brings a power advantage. I give Zuck a 3-to-1 odds of victory over Elon. Some folks probably believe this isn’t even much of a contest, but Elon has a puncher’s chance and Zuck is still relatively new to combat sports and there is evidence of him making beginner mistakes in competition.
If Zuck can manage his distance properly, and score a good takedown he has a really good chance of a first-round finish via submission. On the other hand, if Musk does have some wrestling skills as he claims, this could be closer than most people would predict. A decent wrestler can give even an intermediate BJJ practitioner a run for their money. If this does turn into a grappling match and Zuck pulls off one of those signature leglocks taught by “Darth Rigatoni” it’s unlikely Musk will have an answer for it.
So it seems Zuck is the betting favorite, with Elon still in the game if he can land the right punch or brings some decent grappling to the table. As for the odds of this fight actually happening… I say it’s somewhere around slim to none. But it would sure be fun to watch.