Celebrate With Us: Elon Has Been Promising Self-Driving Cars For Ten Years

Every story has to start somewhere, and ours begins in 2013, when Elon Musk was just beginning to promise the world his cars would be self-driving. To his credit, he was predicting Tesla would be building a self-driving car by 2016 and even then, the car would only be able to do about 90 percent of the miles driven, but still. Every story has to start somewhere.

Teslas were just beginning to really find their way into customer’s hands, and the praise was high; incredibly safe, incredibly well-built and with an EPA estimated 265 miles per charge the Model S was dubbed “groundbreaking” and “a revelation” in Consumer’s Reports.

Musk had also been promising an affordable Tesla for a few years at that point, a feat that has only happened recently via price slashes, incentives and tax credits on the base Model 3, which now runs under $40,000 — even less in some spots in California. Musk also touted solar-powered charging stations (no), 90-second battery swap stations (no) and Tesla going into solar energy storage in a big way (which would eventually come along in 2015).

This was also the year Tesla first became profitable, staying in the green for two whole quarters, and it paid off a $465-million federal loan a whole nine years early. The Model S was exploding on the luxury car market, outselling old standbys like BMW and Mercedes, and the company was just kicking off its Supercharger network. It was enough to make one think its overvalued stock was almost worth the price.

Also in the news, Paul Walker was killed in a fiery crash, Fisker imploded after it burned through federal funds by losing $35,000 on each car sold (which wasn’t many) and GM got its first female CEO with Mary Barra, leaving her to mop up the ignition switch mess started by her predecessors.

OK, now we’re cooking with electrons! In 2014, Elon Musk continued to promise at least 90 percent self-driving by year’s end, like the time on CNN Money, and already the shine was beginning to wear off for Jalopnik, though investors were still all in. It seemed a lot of over promising and under delivering. This year Tesla is consollidating the suite of technologies that would eventually become Autopilot such as automatic braking, and acceleration functions. H

ere’s how Tesla was selling its Autopilot software in press releases back in 2014 (PR from Tesla! What a time to be alive!):

Imagine having your car check your calendar in the morning, calculate travel time to your first appointment based on real time traffic data, automatically open the garage door with Homelink, carefully back out of a tight garage, and pull up to your door ready for your commute. Of course, it could also warm or cool your car to your preferences and select your favorite morning news stream.

Well imagine it, and keep imagining it for another nine years. Autopilot rolled out late in 2014 to some customers with the understanding the software wouldn’t really be fully up to date for some months yet. 2013 was also the year Tesla announced it would partner with Panasonic to build a battery gigafactory.

In other news, GM’s new lady CEO continued to deal with the fallout of the ignition switch scandal — a defect the automaker knew was deadly and ended up killing at least 124 people, Takata’s faulty airbags scandal exploded onto the scene (literally) and Google unveiled its adorable little autonomous concept car that would never see the light of day.

In 2015, Autopilot was fully rolled out to Model S drivers and Musk was promising the software would be able to handle freeways and simple roads in a matter of months. Musk also told Fortune Magazine:

“I think we have all the pieces, and it’s just about refining those pieces, putting them in place, and making sure they work across a huge number of environments—and then we’re done,” Musk told Fortune with assuredness during his commute to SpaceX headquarters in Hawthorne, Calif., where he is also CEO. “It’s a much easier problem than people think it is. But it’s not like George Hotz, a one-guy-and-three-months problem. You know, it’s more like, thousands of people for two years.”

Self-driving cars are a lot like flying cars; their arrival on our roads is always scheduled for a few years hence. The Tesla website at this time makes it clear this just the first step in true autonomy, and drivers must stay in control of the vehicle. Here’s how we described our first drive with Autopilot after a massive update brought the system into sharper focus back in 2015:

Autopilot, if it isn’t a full autonomous system, is simple enough in execution. It won’t drive you to your ultimate destination, it won’t make navigational turns without your input, and it doesn’t know what the traffic light or the sign in front of you says. So think of it less like an autonomous system, and rather more like the ultimate execution of cruise control. It uses a forward-looking radar, a front-facing camera, 12 ultrasonic sensors, and GPS to make sure everything stays on the road, and it seems to work well enough using those.

We also got a plucky little SUV from Tesla this year in the form of the gull-winged Model X. Eight years later, the Model X and Model S are still for sale in relatively the same form — and with the same technology — as when they were unveiled.

Takata remained in our hearts and minds this year as horror story after horror story came out of the gross negligence of the company. GM also settled with families of loved ones who died due to faulty ignition switches. The next big automotive scandal — Dieselgate — hit the industry hard. It was also the year our dear former Editor-in-Chief Patrick George became the first person to crash a 2016 Chevy Camaro. We also said goodbye to the Bugatti Veyron, and car sales breeched 17.5 million sold in a single year for the first time ever.

2016 was the year of the now infamous demonstration video in which a Tesla Model X seemed to be driving itself. However, a former Tesla engineer recently testified he helped stage the video with Musk’s full knowledge. Tesla also revealed the more affordable (though still fairly pricy at the time) Model 3. It was also the year Tesla cut new customers off from its free charging. Sadly, 2016 saw the first confirmed fatality in a crash using Autopilot.

Musk was still promising that the “...$35,000-plus Tesla Model 3 will begin in the second half of 2017 and that the automaker will add a compact pickup truck, a compact SUV, and a ride-sharing service some time after that,” according to MotorTrend. Ain’t none of that happened. Though the price of the Model 3 has fluctuated wildly over the last few years, it’s only in good ol’ 2023 that it became as or more affordable as the average gas-burning new car.

You know what also didn’t happen? A fully self-driving car. Musk promised that next year would be the year, according to Insider:

We’ll be able to do a demonstration guide of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York...from home in LA to Times Square in New York. And then have the car go and park itself,.

In other news, Toyota killed Scion, and the EPA smacked VW with a staggering $14.7 billion fine for Dieselgate shenanigans. More Takata airbags were recalled. And other companies began eyeing that self-driving crown; Google gave up on its self-driving car (that was fast), instead deciding to focus on automation by outfitting a fleet of Chrysler Pacificas with sensors and LiDar, and Uber was offering rides in Volvo XC90s with drivers at the wheel to take over for the car. GM also bought Cruise, its self-driving company. For the record, Ford CEO Mark Fields predicted Ford would have full autonomy by 2021, and that hasn’t happened either.

This year marked the beginning of so-called production hell for Tesla. Along with production hell came quality control hell, and Teslas began to get a reputation for poorly arranged body panels and shattered glass roofs. Tesla was building cars in tents in the parking lot. They just could not build the cars fast enough, which sounds like a great problem to have until it’s yours to solve. Buyers continued to hold their collective breath for the always promised, never delivered $35,000 Model 3 as Musk whittled down a waitlist stretching years in advance.

In April of 2017, Elon Musk said during a TED talk:

“November or December of this year, we should be able to go from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey.”

But that jazz didn’t last. By December, he was telling crowds at a conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS) that self-driving cars were just two years away (remember when he said that two slides ago?) and self-driving cars would be better at driving than humans in just three.

Passenger cars died quiet deaths in the U.S. in 2017. It was also the year we incorrectly predicted Uber’s eventual demise. Hey, even we get things wrong occasionally. Not every year for 10 years, but occasionally. It was also the year we pondered “What if self-driving cars never happen?” which I think was a pretty good take, so they cancel each other out. Uber suspended its self-driving cars after a fatal crash in Arizona.

Musk said back in 2015 he expected full self-driving cars by now, but 2018 was when the bloom started to come off the rose regarding Autopilot and other self-driving systems. There were more reports of stationary objects confusing the system, sending unwary drivers into the back of firetrucks or ambulances.

Tesla was still in production hell at the time. Musk claimed he was sleeping in factories, which his then-girlfriend electronic music star Grimes must have loved. But by mid-2018 things were looking better for the Model 3 roll out — Tesla’s honest stab at an affordable EV.

It was also the year Tesla surpassed Ford and Fiat Chrysler in market capital thanks to Tesla’s rising sales (and the big guys falling ones.) Shares headed upward toward $400 a share, which was when Elon Musk made his ill-advised tweet about taking the company private and tweeting he had the funds to do so. That tweet led to a Securities and Exchange Committee ruling which requires that a lawyer for the Tesla company review any of Musk’s tweets related to the company before he posts — a rule he may have broken twice.

In February 2018 on a shareholder’s call, Musk promised a cross-country fully autonomous ride within three to six months — a promise Musk originally made in 2016 with the potentially doctored self-driving Tesla commercial. From Mashable:

“It’s also one of those things that’s kind of exponential, it doesn’t seem there’s much progress and then suddenly “wow,” said Musk. “Time-wise, we could probably do a coast-to-coast drive in 3 months, 6 months in the outside.”

But once again, by the end of the year, Musk had changed his tune. In November, he told Recode (now Vox’s Technology page) that fully self-driving cars were only one year away, according to Forbes:

Speaking with Recode’s editor-at-large Kara Swisher, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said he’s confident that the carmaker will achieve full self-driving next year, in 2019, ahead of any other car manufacturer.

“I don’t want to sound overconfident, but I would be very surprised if any of the car companies exceeded Tesla in self-driving, in getting to full self-driving,” confided Musk. “They’re just not good at software. And this is a software problem.”

This was around the time people started to get a little cocky about their so-called self-driving cars. Folks learned how to defeat the safety element that would ensure Tesla drivers would keep their hands on their steering wheels, much to NHTSA’s disapproval. Autopilot even drew the ire of Ralph Nader’s Center for Auto Safety. It probably should have been more robust than just hand pressure on the wheel, but Tesla thought, nah, fuck that.

Also happening in 2018: Nissan CEO Carl Ghosn got nicked by the cops in Japan, Waymo launched in Phoenix and began running very limited robo-taxis in the city, and Sergio Marchionne passed away, leaving the then Fiat-Chrysler directionless. Cars continued to die, and trucks continued to get bigger and bigger. On the other side, Porsche went all in on EVs with the critically acclaimed Taycan.

Ah, the infamous year of Autonomy Day, when some truly batshit stuff was spouted by the Tesla founder about self-driving cars. It’s also the year the Model Y made the scene, and it was the year of the Cybertruck (supposedly with a delivery date of 2022. Though COVID-19 helped bomb those plans.) Among other big claims, such as the one that cars would be level 5 autonomous (meaning they could go anywhere with no geofencing) and that Teslas would soon be good for a million miles, was the assurance that Teslas would be fully self-driving by the middle of 2020.

By the middle of next year, we’ll have over a million Tesla cars on the road with full self-driving hardware, feature complete, at a reliability level that we would consider that no one needs to pay attention.

Musk also tweeted that “Buying a car in 2019 that can’t upgrade to full self-driving is like buying a horse instead of a car in 1919,” promised one million Tesla robotaxis and doubled down on the self-driving claims, according to Insider:

“This year...the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention,” Musk said in 2019. “I would say that I am certain of that. That is not a question mark.”

Always a year or two away! It was also the year Musk unveiled the Cybertruck, and we are now on year five of waiting for that vehicle to be rolled out. Musk says production should start at the end of this year. Sure, whatever bud.

This year we also got a huge UAW strike, and some exciting new vehicles such as a reborn Supra and a rugged EV truck from newcomer Rivian. The new Corvette C8 burns our faces off with its badass looks and performance and an all-electric Ford Mustang Mach-E debuted full of shrimp. What a time to be alive!

Ah 2020, the year everything went entirely to shit. But not really for Tesla. Tesla had finally worked out its production hell... right before California shut down its operation during COVID-19 lockdowns.

It was also the year Full Self-Driving Beta began to roll out to certain customers who paid a premium to test the software, as well as had to meet certain safe driving metrics.

And what else was Musk up to in 2020? Oh the usual. From the BBC:

Speaking via video, Mr Musk told the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai: “I’m extremely confident that level five - or essentially complete autonomy - will happen and I think will happen very quickly.

“I feel like we are very close.

“I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year.

“There are no fundamental challenges remaining

Tesla’s star continued to rise as it enjoyed five straight quarters of profits and Elon Musk continued to make big promises. During a shareholder’s meeting, Musk claimed the company would build a $25,000 self-driving car by 2023. Wouldn’t that be something?

Also in 2020: The Bronco, Hummer, and Jeep Grand Wagoneer all made a reappearance in American automaker’s lineups. We lost some of the last remaining small cars from American automakers this year as well; the Chevrolet Impala and Sonic died, as did the Ford Fusion. Carlos Ghosn also made his grand escape that year, stowing away in a guitar case in order to escape prison time in Japan.

Tesla sold a whole bunch of vehicles in 2021. It was also wracking up crashes and bad reviews of its build quality at this point. Elon Musk also became the richest person on Earth. Tesla announced its moved from California to Texas

That year, Elon Musk pegged the arrival of a fully self-driving vehicle to 2022. Let’s see how that worked out for him! By October, Tesla had ordered a recall of 11,000 vehicles with FSD Beta. It was also the year Musk realized making self-driving cars is pretty tough. Huh.

You said it, Elon!

Also on the docket that year was Musk deciding to ditch the LiDAR and make Tesla’s self-driving based only on cameras, because that’s how human beings do it.

“Humans drive with eyes and biological neural nets,” Musk said in October. “So [it] makes sense that cameras and silicon neural nets are [the] only way to achieve generalized solution to self-driving.”

Does... Elon Musk think it’s the human eyes that do all the work of seeing and not the brain? And I thought the point was to be better than human beings, but OK. As he took self-driving equipment out of the equation, Musk was still making big promises. From the New York Times:

“I’m highly confident the car will drive itself for the reliability in excess of a human this year,” he said during an earnings call in January 2021. “This is a very big deal.”

In 2021, America was in the midst of chip shortages and supply chain knots. Used and new cars are expensive but we had begun to settled into our new abnormal normal. EVs were finally selling because gas was expensive, but there weren’t many cars on lots, ICE or EV. Biden also enacted tougher efficiency guidelines, and Stellantis was born.

Gas prices were up, logistics chains were down and 2022 was no different than the nine years before it for Elon Musk, who made big promises about self-driving cars and continued to deliver very little. Indeed, 2022 was one of Tesla’s worst years yet thanks to Musk’s messy acquisition of Twitter tarnishing his know-everything CEO persona.

Anyway, here’s what he said during a Q4 call in January 2022:

Full Self-Driving. So, over time, we think Full Self-Driving will become the most important source of profitability for Tesla. It’s — actually, if you run the numbers on robotaxis, it’s kind of nutty — it’s nutty good from a financial standpoint. And I think we are completely confident at this point that it will be achieved. And my personal guess is that we’ll achieve Full Self-Driving this year, yes, with data safety level significantly greater than present.

That year was plagued with expensive cars and expensive gas. Plus the Inflation Reduction act was signed, giving the American EV industry a desperately needed shot in the arm as the auto market more or less corrected itself following the turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Are we having fun yet? This year, Tesla suggested Elon Musk’s statements on self-driving tech were merely aspirational or maybe even AI generated, who can say? What they aren’t, however, is something to be taken seriously.

Still, Musk is going to be Musk. Even while his lawyers come up with fanciful explanations for his statements on autonomous cars, he was telling investors that this year full autonomy would make them all a boat load of money:

For those that are using the FSD beta, I think you can see the improvements are really quite dramatic. There’ll be a little bit of two steps forward, one step back between releases for those trying the beta. But the trend is very clearly towards full self-driving, towards full autonomy. And I hesitate to say this, but I think we’ll do it this year.

As Forbes points out, Musk is predicting a huge margin bump from vehicles, but only in a fully self-driving future where vehicles are used as robotaxis. He’s seemingly betting the farm on self-driving technology while Tesla’s version increasingly looks like a flash in the pan.

Tesla, despite having quite the head start, was just beat by Mercedes in bringing a level III autonomous car to market this year. Sure it’s only being sold in the most sun-soaked and dry parts of the country, but it’s more than Tesla has done in the last ten years.